Studying Deterrence Among High-Risk Adolescents

Pathways to Desistance How and why do many serious adolescent offenders stop offending while others continue to commit crimes? This series of bulletins presents findings from the Pathways to Desistance study, a multidisciplinary investigation that attempts to answer this question. Investigators interviewed 1,354 young offenders from Philadelphia and Phoenix for 7 years after their convictions to learn what factors (e.g., individual maturation, life changes, and involvement with the criminal justice system) lead youth who have committed serious offenses to persist in or desist from offending. As a result of these interviews and a review of official records, researchers have collected the most comprehensive dataset available about serious adolescent offenders and their lives in late adolescence and early adulthood. These data provide an unprecedented look at how young people mature out of offending and what the justice system can do to promote positive changes in the lives of these youth. Highlights The Pathways to Desistance study followed more than 1,300 serious juvenile offenders for 7 years after their conviction. In this bulletin, the authors present some key findings on the link between perceptions of the threat of sanctions and deterrence from crime among serious adolescent offenders. Selected findings are as follows: • There was no meaningful reduction in offending or arrests in response to more severe punishment (e.g., correctional placement, longer stays). • Policies targeting specific types of offending may be more effective at deterring youth from engaging in these specific offenses as opposed to general policies aimed at overall crime reduction. • In response to an arrest, youth slightly increased their risk perceptions, which is a necessary condition for deterrence. • Creating ambiguity about detection probabilities in certain areas or for certain types of crime may have a deterrent effect by enhancing the perceived risk of getting caught. Although deterrence is one of the foundations of the juvenile justice and criminal justice systems, little is known about how the fear or threat of sanctions affects the decisionmaking process among adolescent offenders. These youth are an important focus of research attention, given their disproportionate rates of participation in serious crime, the diversity of their offending patterns and developmental backgrounds, and the strong likelihood of desistance as they transition to adulthood. Policymakers who understand the role of deterrence in a broader context of developmental change and life course transitions have important information as they consider how to respond to crimes that adolescents …